By Matt McCallMay 08, 2019
It’s become trendy for stock “gurus” to start pushing marijuana stocks. A few months ago, most of them were silent on the issue. Now they all seem to be pounding the table.
I urged people to consider cannabis stocks back in 2014 – for one simple reason: Colorado had opened the door by being the first U.S. state to legalize recreational marijuana.
Since then, Colorado has made over $6 billion in legal marijuana sales in just four years. This has produced more than $927 million in tax revenue. Some of the biggest names in U.S. legal cannabis operate there, like Charlotte’s Web (CWBHF) and Elixinol Global (ELLXF), and they are flourishing.
From the beginning, I knew that was just the first “domino” to fall… leading to full, federal legalization.
Given that we’ve been under marijuana prohibition for generations, many folks are still skeptical. Well, based on the facts, news, and trends – not a gut feeling for or against marijuana – I do expect legalization, and soon.
I told you about a couple of the biggest developments yesterday – comments from connected insiders and the historic deal for the biggest marijuana company in the world to acquire a U.S. company when cannabis becomes legal.
It doesn’t stop there. Today, I have six more reasons why you should expect legalization soon.
The first official step to full-blown legalization will likely be one of two specific bills that are working their way through Congress.
In March, the Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act passed the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services with bipartisan support. If passed, the bill will allow banks to work with marijuana companies without fear of breaking any laws.
Only a small number of regional banks and credit unions currently take the risk of offering services to the industry. Banking costs for marijuana companies are exceptionally high – try $5,000 a month maintenance fees! – due to the risk banks are taking by technically breaking federal laws. So, access to traditional banks/loans would be a game-changer.
The other piece of legislation, the Strengthening the Tenth Amendment Through Entrusting States (STATES) Act, will allow individual states to make their own laws on cannabis, including banking. Any bank lawfully working with marijuana businesses will be protected under the STATES Act.
At least one of these bills will likely be passed in the coming months, and possibly both. Either would be a major step toward legalizing marijuana in the United States.
Note: Please understand that my analysis on politics and the stock market is 100% from an investing point of view. I have no desire to push any type of politics on you in any manner. I hate it when other people do that to me, and I would never do it to you. My one and only goal is to make you money.
The 2020 presidential election is already in the daily headlines. I’ve lost track of the number of Democrats that have thrown their hats into the ring. I know it’s more than 20… and the election is still more than a year-and-a-half away!
These candidates come from all types of backgrounds. Some are far left and others are more moderate. The candidates will undoubtedly take vicious shots at each other as they try to secure the Democratic nomination, but there is one topic that could create that kumbaya moment – marijuana.
Nearly every Democratic candidate has called for legalization of even recreational marijuana as well expunging federal charges related to cannabis. Former Vice President Joe Biden is one major exception, but I don’t think we’ve heard the last from him on this issue. Expect the topic to be at the forefront of town halls and debates over the next 18 months.
In the meantime, several bills were introduced in the last year that would legalize marijuana nationwide. The one that has the best chance – and the backing of big-name Democrats – is the Marijuana Justice Act. It was originally introduced in 2017, but a vote never took place. New Jersey Senator Cory Booker reintroduced the bill in February. Its chances of getting through the Senate are very low, but the bill does put pressure on the Republicans up for re-election. That brings me to the next catalyst…
I have attended a few cannabis conferences recently, and I stay in touch with industry insiders. In just the last few months, I’ve noticed a significant increase in the number of insiders who expect President Trump to introduce a bill to legalize marijuana. Based on what I’m hearing from them and people who have connections in D.C., the odds of the president introducing such a bill are now well above 50%.
We know President Trump wants another term, and according to a poll by Civilized, cannabis users plan to vote come November 3, 2020. Civilized is a pro legalization site, but about 90% of people surveyed said they intend to vote in the next presidential election. That’s significant, and about 3% higher than non-cannabis consumers.
Democrats will make sure marijuana is front and center in all debates. And it makes sense politically for Republicans, too. Backing marijuana’s legalization will not hurt the party’s voter base and could bring some moderates over to their side.
That is where President Trump comes into play. If legalizing marijuana can swing some moderate Democrats to his side, he will not hesitate. I and others I talk with increasingly believe President Trump will strike preemptively and legalize marijuana before the election.
Marijuana remains a Schedule 1 drug in the United States, which is one reason it is illegal. According to the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), Schedule 1 drugs are generally unsafe with a high potential for abuse and no accepted medical use.
More and more studies refute all three of those criteria when it comes to marijuana. The last qualifier – no accepted medical use – is now known to be simply false.
What will it take for the DEA to remove marijuana from Schedule 1? Well, the first thing is old-fashioned common sense. Heroin, LSD, and ecstasy are all Schedule 2 drugs, which in theory means they are less dangerous than marijuana. That’s crazy. You don’t need a medical or biology degree to see how out of touch and outdated that is.
Beyond common sense, there are other things that will force the DEA to change marijuana’s classification. The most likely are more studies demonstrating the positive medicinal effects of marijuana.
This is yet another silly situation because government regulations make it extremely difficult to perform those studies. However, new Attorney General William Barr has said he supports more marijuana research, and the more individual states do, the higher the likelihood this will change.
The bottom line is that the DEA’s blessing is necessary for marijuana to be legalized. If all other parties, including Congress and President Trump, get behind legalization, the DEA will have no choice but to succumb to the pressure.
Something called the Farm Bill doesn’t sound all that exciting, but believe me, it is. The bill legalized hemp in the United States for the first time in over 80 years.
To be clear, the legalization of hemp did not have any direct effect on marijuana laws. But it did open up the conversation of doing the same thing with cannabis, which is important. If the Farm Bill was a test run of legalization, the government should be satisfied.
We’re already seeing demand for hemp-related goods. Products that include cannabidiol (CBD), the non-psychoactive part of the plant, are now found in food, drinks, skincare products, etc. What’s more, they are available at places like CVS Health (CVS), Walgreens (WBA), and Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY). The hemp-CBD market is expected to balloon 40X over the next few years.
Good or bad, right or wrong, many decisions are made based on money. When it comes to marijuana, the dollar signs are too big to ignore.
The amount of tax revenue that states could generate from legal marijuana is impressive. And when politicians of one state watch neighboring states bring in revenue, it puts pressure on them to get in on the action. Thus, the snowball effect of more states legalizing marijuana.
Job creation is an often overlooked benefit of legalization. One study shows that marijuana could result in over 300,000 new jobs by 2020.
California has already created 80,000 jobs in the marijuana industry, according to a study from ICF International. To put that into money terms – that is a $3.5 billion increase in labor income. And guess what? More income taxes as well.
All states would love to have hundreds of millions in additional revenue. So would the federal government… which is a big reason for the bold prediction I’m making now.
You can see that the argument for marijuana legalization definitely has the power of money behind it. We’re interested in the power of money from an investing viewpoint, so tomorrow we’ll take a closer look at the massive potential in front of us as the United States heads toward legal marijuana.
P.S. As an investor, you need to grab your slice of that pie. However you feel about marijuana, numbers don’t lie, and getting in on the ground floor of a mega-trend like this is how you build explosive wealth.
But it’s critical to get in BEFORE America legalizes nationally.
Marijuana stocks are about to deliver their next wave of wealth much quicker than you’d think. Stay tuned to MoneyWire for urgent details on this developing story. And if you’d like to hear more now, please click here for my latest presentation.
Note: This is Part 3 of a series on the opportunity presented by the upcoming legalization of marijuana in the United States. Click here to read Part 4 now.
Self-driving cars – aka “autonomous vehicles” (AVs) – represent one of the biggest investment opportunities of the next 25 years. This innovation will transform huge portions of our economy and create trillion dollar ripple effects through time. It will create huge new winners in short periods of time. It will demolish losers in equally short periods of time. It’s critical that you stay on the right side of this trend. Learn more here.
If I had to make one bet for 2019 it would be that betting is going to be big. The Supreme Court’s May 14 ruling cleared the way for states to allow sports gambling. And in my 25 years of investing experience, I honestly cannot remember many things that come close to magnitude of the investing opportunity that opened up to us. Massive amounts of money are involved in sports betting, and I expect massive amounts of money will be made, too. Learn more here.
Don't miss out on the incredible megatrends that are shaping today's market. Gain access to the most powerful market insights and stock advice from Matt McCall absolutely FREE. Join Today!